A study published today in Age and Ageing, the scientific journal of the British Geriatrics Society, reports that the number of older people diagnosed with four or more diseases will double between 2015 and 2035. A third of these people will be diagnosed with dementia, depression or a cognitive impairment.
The study, conducted by researchers at Newcastle University’s Institute for Ageing, found that over the next 20 years there will be a massive expansion in the number of people suffering from multiple diseases, known as multi-morbidity. As a result two-thirds of the life expectancy gains, predicted as 3.6 years for men, 2.9 years for women, will be spent with four or more diseases.
Over the next 20 years the largest increase in diagnoses will be cancer (up by 179.4%) and diabetes (up by 118.1%) in the older population, whilst arthritis and cancer will see the greatest rise in prevalence. In the population over the age of 85 years all diseases, apart from dementia and depression, will more than double in absolute numbers between 2015 and 2035.
Professor Carol Jagger, Professor of Epidemiology of Ageing at Newcastle University’s Institute for Ageing led the study which has developed the Population Ageing
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